At risk of obesity or just big boned? A new tool that calculates a baby's risk of becoming obese may settle the matter at birth. The creators of the tool hope that it will encourage parents to take early action to improve their children's health.
To develop their tool, Anita Morandi at the University of Verona in Italy and colleagues analysed data from 4032 people born in Finland in 1986.
They were particularly interested in which factors were most predictive of actual obesity. These factors included body mass index (BMI), birth weight, whether the mother smoked during pregnancy and her occupation.
They then tested the formula they derived, the "obesity risk calculator", on birth data from 1503 Italian children now aged 4 to 12 and from 1032 US children aged 7. About 75 per cent of the babies predicted to be at the highest risk of obesity actually became obese.
Harmful predictions?
The tool could be used to identify children who have almost no risk of developing child obesity, says Morandi. The remaining children will have varying degrees of risk, she says, but every one of them would be "an appropriate target for focused prevention".
There are caveats though. Morandi says the formula cannot account for certain de novo genetic mutations ? genes present in the baby but not in the parents ? that may increase a child's obesity risk.
Charlotte Wright at the University of Glasgow, UK, says that roughly 25 per cent of the tool's predictions are false positives ? inaccurately predicting future obesity. Unnecessary measures might be taken with very young children, she says. "In extreme cases an inaccurate prediction could be harmful."
And many of the environmental factors that influence the risk of obesity can change over a child's life, says health researcher Joan Costa-i-Font at the London School of Economics. These can be "hard to account for", he adds.
Stigmatisation
The model seems to be accurate, says Neil Thomas at the University of Birmingham, UK. "A few predictors often carry the majority of the risk."
However, he questions how effective the tool will be in practice. For example, will it always be acceptable to get the BMI of obese parents? Stigmatisation is a problem, he says, and it can lead to those who are most at risk being excluded.
Even if you predict the risk of obesity successfully, it is not clear what measures should be taken, says Thomas. Getting people to make lifestyle changes is really hard, he says. "A lot of societal pressures work against it."
Try out the calculator for yourself.
Journal reference: PLoS One, doi.org/jvf
If you would like to reuse any content from New Scientist, either in print or online, please contact the syndication department first for permission. New Scientist does not own rights to photos, but there are a variety of licensing options available for use of articles and graphics we own the copyright to.
Have your say
Only subscribers may leave comments on this article. Please log in.
Only personal subscribers may leave comments on this article
Subscribe now to comment.
All comments should respect the New Scientist House Rules. If you think a particular comment breaks these rules then please use the "Report" link in that comment to report it to us.
If you are having a technical problem posting a comment, please contact technical support.
printable bracket game change own stacy francis tournament brackets 2012 ncaa basketball tournament walt
Share ?
Email ?
Print
What is this, and whom is it a part of?
The first?Our Bodies, Ourselves?was?written for us in the early 70s. It was a landmark book that helped fuel the women?s liberation movement with its frank discussion of a woman?s body. The publishers, the?Boston Women?s Health Book Collective, caught up to us again six years ago with this edition on Menopause, which I find equally progressive. They cover the basics of Menopause (?What?s Happening in Our Bodies?), which I think women just entering the perimenopausal phase will find particularly helpful.
The Smart Woman?s Guide to Midlife and Beyond: A No Nonsense Approach to Staying Healthy After 50
?is chock full of information about the mid-life transition beginning
with a thorough explanation of the initial, peri-menopausal phase. It?s written by? Kate Bracy Kalb RN, a women?s health care practitioner, with a technical review by a gynecologist,?Kathryn Arendt, MD.? It?s quite extensive, but well organized and easy to read. I?d bet that whatever question you have about the changes you?re experiencing will be answered in these pages.
?to my younger friends in the sputtering stage of menopause (aka perimenopause), who don?t have a clue about what?s happening to their bodies or what to expect in the years ahead. The author covers a lot of ground ? from HRT and hot flashes to memory lapses and vaginal dryness ? in an intimate, girlfriend-to-girlfriend voice that makes this book instructive and engaging.
.?It?s an important book that, besides the basics, covers weighty issues such as the medicalization of menopause, understanding research when it comes to prevention and risk of disease, and women?s cancers.
I was up in the Arctic Circle this past weekend, attempting to eat reindeer burgers, swim in non-existent ice holes and see the Northern Lights when we checked out a real, working Angry Birds activity park up in Rovaniemi, Finland. There are just a handful of parks out around in Finland and China, but as we see below, that hasn't stopped the CMO of Rovio, Peter Vesterbacka, from going all Mighty Eagle on some playground gear. Let's take a closer look at some of Rovio's real-life game mechanics and compare them with Angry Birds on mobile.
