Monday, January 16, 2012

With a Week to Go, South Carolina Primary Race Tightens (ContributorNetwork)

The latest polling data suggests that next week's all-important Republican primary in South Carolina might be turning into a bit of a nail-biter. Let's take a closer look at the situation:

Who is leading the South Carolina race now?

According to a Public Policy Polling survey completed on Friday, Mitt Romney maintains a fairly slim lead in the Palmetto State with 29 percent. Newt Gingrich has closed the gap slightly at 24 percent. Ron Paul and Rick Santorum appear to be battling for third place with 15 percent and 14 percent.

A month or so ago Gingrich had a big lead in the state but as his fortunes have declined nationally, they've taken a hit in South Carolina as well. Meanwhile, Paul is on the rise and might be able to close the gap a little more before the voting begins in a week.

How significant is the primary in South Carolina going to be?

It should be very significant, particularly for any GOP candidate who isn't Romney. After his narrow victory in Iowa and his blowout win in New Hampshire, there is a growing sense of inevitability within the Republican Party about Romney, and this is something that has been reflected in the polls. A big win in South Carolina, or any win at all there, would make Romney's path to the nomination a relatively easy and likely inevitable process from here on out. For most of the other candidates, South Carolina is their firewall. If they don't do well here it might be difficult, if not impossible, to have any hope for their campaign going forward.

Can Newt Gingrich catch Mitt Romney?

Overcoming a five-point deficit in one week is certainly manageable, particularly given that Gingrich has the strong and wealthy support of his Super PAC, Winning Our Future. Gingrich, however, has been involved in a recent, awkward confrontation with the PAC about an anti-Romney film that it produced. It will be interesting to see what effect, if any, this might have in the final days before the vote.

What happened to Rick Santorum?

Clearly his near-victory in Iowa almost two weeks ago has not jump-started his campaign the way he hoped it would have. Nobody expected him to do well in less-evangelical New Hampshire but South Carolina, with its strong socially conservative and evangelical base, was seemingly well-suited for him. Currently polling fourth in the Palmetto State is a very ominous sign for Santorum's campaign.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/gop/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ac/20120114/pl_ac/10834743_with_a_week_to_go_south_carolina_primary_race_tightens

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